How are we different from credit rating agencies or in-house credit analysis?

We believe that conventional credit analysis – done at credit rating agencies or in-house – covers company-specific historical data quite well. However, in a fast-changing world, such data is rarely useful for real-time estimates of a company’s creditworthiness.
As a result, most of the conventional credit analysis is neither dynamic enough not sufficiently accurate – as brought out quite painfully during the defaults by AAA and AA rated companies in the recent couple of years.

Our research indicates that our forecasts of default have done better than conventional credit ratings in terms of accuracy as well as timeliness. (Details are available on request.)

A demonstration of the dynamic and accurate nature of our forecasts

Following graph shows the change in our estimates for probability of default by Syntex Industries - since 12 months before the company’s eventual default in June 2019

In comparison, its credit rating hardly shifted till the very event of default!

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