At ASQI Systems, we have built a forecasting engine to evaluate and dynamically update the credit risk of listed and unlisted companies in India.

This engine is powered by advanced artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms that use datasets from a wide range of sources – including conventional and alternate ones.

ASQI

CREDCAST Our forecasting system

Our forecasting system uses not only the fundamental data coming from the company (i.e. income statement and balance sheet) but also alternate data that are higher frequency and more dynamic. We also believe that each company is situated in a greater macroeconomic context and hence the changes in this context (e.g. other sectors, broader economy, monetary policy etc) significantly affect the fortunes of the company – and consequently its creditworthiness.

We use artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques besides other advanced analytical approaches such as control systems, complexity theory and agent-based models. These techniques combined with a wide range of data enable us to form a highly informed forecast of the financial health of a company.

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Our estimates for pD for companies that defaulted in the last year (12 months before the default)

Company Default Probability as per our analysis (%)
Jagatjit Industries Ltd. 56.14
Kernex Microsystems (India) Ltd 51.45
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. 51.20
Sanjivani Paranteral Ltd. 50.36
Reliance Power Ltd. 47.91
MFL India Ltd. 46.35
  • The “data iceberg” in context of forecasting corporate defaults.
    Data published by the company
    in quarterly and annual results
    - Income Statement
    - Balance Sheet
    - Cashflows
    Sectoral Data
    - Sector specific high-frequency
    - Interlinkages across sectors
    Macroeconomic Data
    - Growth (GDP, IIP etc.)
    - Monetary Aggregates
    - Commodities, Currencies
    - Global Factors
    Metadata of Announcements
    - Timing
    - Language/Tone
    - Fine Print
    Alternate data specific to company
    - Capital Markets
    - Tax/Regulatory Submissions
    - News Sentiments

Platform Capabilities

Evaluate a specific company

Forecast of the probability of default by the company over next 1 year

See the worst affected sectors

The probabilities of upgrade and downgrade in credit rating of the company over next 1 year

Check which companies are high-risk

Extent of financial vulnerability of the company

We also offer Sector-level probability of default - aggregated at the level of 8 super-sectors, 36 sectors or 102 sub-sectors

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